The Five Real Estate Stories That Defined Last Year (and Still Matter)

1. Private Networks & Off-Market Listings

   The debate around private listings escalated, not resolved. 

   👉 National Association of Realtors failed to fully rescind the Clear Cooperation Policy, opting instead for amendments—keeping the controversy much alive.

   👉 Zillow asserted what it views as its market dominance by prohibiting listings that are privately marketed before hitting the MLS.

   👉 Compass—led by its CEO Robert Reffkin—has openly opposed these restrictions, pushing private networks while simultaneously acquiring Anywhere (a conglomerate of real estate brands). 

    

   At its core, this is a governance debate. Should NAR act as a rule-make or return to its roots as an advocacy organization? And if not NAR, then who—individual brokerages, local MLSs, or something else entirely? This fight isn’t over. It’s just getting louder. Pass the popcorn...you'll need a free refill, this will continue to be a long story... 
   
   
2. The New Administration, the Economy, and Real Estate’s Push-Pull
   Policy didn’t just influence real estate—it reshaped incentives through the One Big Beautiful Bill: 
   👉 Capital flowed aggressively into real estate as lower taxes pushed investors toward hard assets. 
   👉 Opportunity Zones didn’t magically create great projects—but they made marginal projects viable. In real estate (and especially construction), that’s everything.
   👉 A 20% pass-through deduction lowered risk for builders and developers, encouraging scale instead of staying artificially small for tax reasons. 
   👉 Bonus depreciation allowed investors to depreciate aggressively upfront—showing paper losses while generating real cash. Renovation exploded. Older buildings became tax gold mines. 
    
   Then came tariffs.
    
   Construction materials touch nearly every corner of the globe—from China and Canada to Mexico, Turkey, Germany, Italy, and Japan. Builders estimate costs increases ranging from $8,000 to potentially nearly $20,000 per new home. Even before those costs fully materialize, sentiment alone slowed workflows. Volatility—real or perceived—kills predictability, and predictably is everything when projects span 6-24 months. 
    
   Add in deregulation promises that haven’t fully translated and a major wildcard that didn’t get enough coverage: immigration. Reduced labor supply worsened an already severe construction labor shortage, driving wage inflation and extending timelines—potentially offsetting any future regulatory relief. 
   
   
3. Rates: The Story Everyone Got Wrong
   Rates did fall—but not where it mattered. 
    
   Despite pressure on the Fed and eventually cuts late int he year, mortgage rates barely moved. Why? The yield spread between what banks borrow at and what consumers pay has widened. 
    
   Refinancing demand—fueled by years of “marry the house, date the rate”—added pressure, ironically keeping mortgage rates elevated. The result: buyers didn’t meaningfully benefit. 
    
   One stat tells the story best: 26% of home sales were cash—compared to just 7% twenty years ago. That’s not a normal market signal.
   
   
4. The “Nobody Market”
   Inventory rose modestly but remained well below pre-2020 norms. Prices plateaued. Activity stalled.
    
   When asked whether it was a buyer’s or seller’s market, Ryan Serhant called it a “nobody market.” He wasn’t wrong. 
    
   The lock-in effect persists—nearly half of homeowners still hold mortgages under 4%. Until rates move meaningfully lower, supply will remain constrained and momentum muted.
   
   
5. Industry Shakeups and the Rise of Real Value
   More buyer and sellers are using agents—but fewer agents are doing deals. The shakeout is accelerating. Value is winning!!
    
   AI became real this year—not as a gimmick, but as infrastructure. Agents moved beyond marketing and into systems: market analysis, absorption modeling, pricing velocity, predictive insights (I have had too much fun analyzing data). The industry shifted from reactive to predictive. 
    
   What AI didn’t do? It didn’t replace agents. I didn’t fix affordability. It didn’t override human judgment. But it did raise the bar—and it will be an even bigger story ahead. Oh, and it made some really cool Instagram inspiration photos. 
    
   So which story stood out to you? Which one are you watching most closely this year? Below I have ranked these—and what I think comes next for the new year. 

Adam’s Biggest Real Estate Stories of the Year (Ranked)

1. The “Nobody Market”

Because almost every analyst got the year wrong. Inventory rose, prices plateaued, and momentum stalled—yet no one truly won. Buyers hesitated. Sellers held firm. The market wasn’t broken; it was frozen.

2. The New Administration, the Economy, and Real Estate’s Push-Pull

Upfront depreciation became a major win for investors, but tariffs and immigration pressures are only the visible edge of a much larger iceberg. The long-term impact—Better or worse—is still unknown.

3. Private Networks and Off-Market Listings

This just isn’t going away. The debate isn’t fading—it’s hardening. Governance, control, and market access remain unresolved, and the industry is still wrestling with who should make the rules. Compass’ acquisition of Anywhere now commands 20% of the U.S. residential real estate market (some analyst suggest it could be 30% or more in some cities) living them significant scale and influence. Like, a lot. 

4. Industry Shakeups and the Rise of Real Value

The industry continues to thin. Fewer agents are doing more deals. The fundamentals didn’t change—but the best agents scaled while the rest fell away. Meanwhile, AI moved from novelty to necessity across every industry…yes, even your interior design Instagram feed.

5. Rates: The Story Everyone Got Wrong

Still important—but not the real blocker. Rates didn’t move enough to change behavior, and sentiment ultimately drove decisions. Psychology beat math this year.