Sellers now outnumber buyers by almost 50% (46%), according to Redfin. Wait, what!? A gap of nearly 630,000 more homes than active buyers! It’s the widest imbalance we’ve seen in over a decade. Let that sink in.
Just last year, the gap was already stretched at nearly 30%. Now? We’ve gone from “uncomfortable” to “way (like structurally) off.” A typical housing market operates within a +/- 10% range—where we call it equilibrium (a balanced market). Last year pushed nearly 3x beyond that range. This year—we’re approaching 5x. So…this is a buyers market then, right?
Technically—yes, but still not quite. Buyers do have more options, more leverage, and more ability to negotiate. That part is real. But there’s a catch with that same word I keep talking about: affordability.
Prices remain elevated, rates are still stubborn, and layered on top of that is something harder to measure but just as powerful: economic hesitation. Buyers aren’t reacting to numbers, they’re reacting to uncertainty. So instead of stepping in, many are stepping back.
The lock-in effect is easing but the sentiment hasn’t settled. That that’s the disconnect.
