The Fed Isn’t Coming to Save Housing

The Fed Isn’t Coming to Save Housing

Every prediction, every headline, every talking head seemed to suggest relief was just around the corner. Buyers spent nearly three years waiting for the Fed to rescue affordability. It didn’t come. 
Last month, a new Fed chair—Kevin Warsh—who was poised to lower rates, didn’t. Instead, his recent comments have pushed expectations in the opposite direction, causing bond markets—and mortgage rates—to remain elevated. 
 
What has happened? The market adapted. For nearly two years, buyers sat on the sidelines waiting for 5% mortgages. Then something unexpected happened: people got married, had children, accepted new jobs, relocated for work, retired, got divorced, and outgrew their homes. Life kept moving. Housing demand didn’t disappear. It merely paused.

Today we’re seeing more buyers come to terms with a reality that would have sounded unbelievable in 2021: a mortgage rate in the mid-6% range may simply be normal for the foreseeable future. That’s changing behavior.

Instead of waiting for lower rates, buyers are negotiating harder. They’re asking sellers for concessions. They’re becoming more selective. They’re shopping within their means. Most importantly, they’re moving forward with purchases because they realize putting life on hold indefinitely isn’t a strategy.

This year has seen a surge of activity. Locally, sales volume this spring was up approximately 5% from a year ago despite mortgage rates remaining in the 6's. In many ways, we’re witnessing the housing market’s return to normal. Not the frenzied market of 2021. Not the frozen market many predicted would occur when rates rose. Something in between. A market where people buy homes because they need homes.

And perhaps the biggest lesson from the last three years is this: the housing market stopped waiting for 5% mortgages long before many economists did.

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